Strong pre‑conflict confidence is now being tested by mounting global uncertainty, writes David Porter.
Ships at sea. Photo: pexels.com Doğan Alpaslan Demir
A major survey of Western Bay of Plenty businesses completed days before the outbreak of the Iran conflict painted a picture of a regional economy entering the year with confidence, strong fundamentals and a willingness to invest.
Priority One executive director Dave Courtney says the results of the organisation’s business confidence survey showed businesses across the region feeling positive about both their own prospects and the local economy, even as cost pressures and workforce challenges persisted.
Dave Courtney
“A key caveat is timing,” Courtney says.
“We had finalised the survey and then, about a week later, the Iran war kicked off.”
Even so, he says the underlying confidence reflected in the results was grounded largely in regional conditions rather than global sentiment.
“The bigger businesses around town came into the year confident and ready to invest their capital,” Courtney says.
“Of course the impact of the war on supply chains may affect the outlook going forward, but much of that confidence was based on what was already happening locally.”
The survey, which involved 169 businesses ranging from large enterprises to small and medium‑sized firms across the Western Bay of Plenty, found more than three‑quarters of respondents were confident about the future of their own business. Confidence in the local economy was also strong, with more than 75 percent expressing optimism – a sharp lift from the previous year.
Bay of Plenty Business News May 2026
A clear majority of businesses believed confidence in the region was improving and that the Western Bay economy was outperforming much of the rest of the country. Confidence in the national economy, while positive, remained notably lower than confidence in local conditions.
Courtney says key regional economic drivers, including kiwifruit and other export sectors, have not fundamentally changed.
“What has changed are things we have no control over,” he says.
“But most local fundamentals – including a solid pipeline of work – remain in place.”
The survey also highlighted that confidence does not mean the absence of pressure. Businesses continue to grapple with rising operational costs, including wages, insurance, energy and rates, as well as ongoing difficulty attracting skilled staff and navigating regulatory complexity. Smaller businesses, in particular, reported lower confidence levels.
Workforce movement remained active. Around a third of businesses reported reducing staff in the past year, while two‑thirds hired new employees and the same proportion plan to hire again. Many also expect automation or artificial intelligence to affect their operations over the next 12 months.
“What this survey tells us is that businesses are confident in their own fundamentals and see strength locally,” Courtney says.
“But escalating global tensions, potential supply chain disruption and energy price volatility may weigh on confidence as the year unfolds.”
Marine Park, Sulphur Point .
