With disasters and disruption becoming more frequent, experts say New Zealand must shift from crisis response to risk management, reports Mary Anne Gill
Waipā mayor Mike Pettit, right, with deputy Jo Davies-Colley was an interested participant during The Next Big Shock session and the next day was on the ground at the floods in the district.
From pandemics and floods to cyber disruption, climate change and landslides, New Zealand is entering an era where shocks are no longer rare events.
If proof was needed, it came the day after Waikato University Management School hosted an Economics Forum session bluntly titled The Next Big Shock.
Once‑in‑a‑century floods hit parts of Waipā and Ōtorohanga.
Among those in the room for the forum was Waipā mayor Mike Pettit, who would declare a State of Emergency the next day.
And in January, a landslide at Mauao (Mount Maunganui) and another in Welcome Bay highlighted the growing risks posed by unstable hillsides.
The country’s biggest risk is not the disasters themselves but the failure to prepare, the panel heard.
Treasury chief strategist James Beard told the audience that a single major disaster can cost the equivalent of 10% of GDP, yet New Zealand continues to treat many foreseeable events as surprises.
“A shock is often something that exceeds our capacity to cope. Preparation changes that.”
Insurance executive Bryce Davies says floods, earthquakes and infrastructure failures should no longer be seen as unexpected.
“They are fully expected. The question is whether we’ve planned for them.”
Former Covid response leader Kiriana Brooking described crises as the collision of sudden shocks with long ignored trends, such as underinvestment in infrastructure or emergency systems.
“Covid and Cyclone Gabrielle weren’t just shocks. They exposed decisions not made years earlier.”
The culvert damage on Corcoran Road in Waipā.
Economist Martin Lally challenged the audience to think beyond headline disasters, arguing that slow burn crises like obesity, addiction and chronic disease impose far greater long term costs than many sudden events.
“Obesity is over 100 times more serious than the most extreme forecasts. It is not much point getting bent out of shape over pandemics when you are ignoring meth and alcohol and obesity.”
For regional New Zealand, the implications are particularly acute. Smaller communities often lack the resources to absorb disruption yet are more exposed to climate and infrastructure risks.
Brooking highlighted how many households lack the means to cope with even short term supply disruptions, turning manageable events into social crises.
Taranaki-King Country MP Barbara Kuriger, right, in deep conversation with Waipā District Council chief executive Steph O’Sullivan on Maungauika Road. Photo: Chris Gardner
There was a need to shift from reactive emergency response to proactive risk management, integrating land use planning, insurance, infrastructure investment and clear rules about who pays when disaster strikes.
“We focus on response because it’s visible. But resilience is built quietly, long before anything goes wrong,” says Davies.
For businesses in Waikato and the Bay of Plenty, the message was direct: resilience is now a competitive advantage.
Companies and regions that plan for disruption will recover faster and suffer less when the next shock arrives.
And as the following day proved, it’s not a question of if, but when.
Mangati Bridge damage
Kuriger also visited a bridge on Maungauika Road where Downer Group’s Willy Chester and his team were working on restoring a ridge that had been unpassable since being submerged in one metre of water in the storm. Photo: Chris Gardner
Four Square Pirongia duty manager Scott Miller, right, met Waipā District Council chief executive Steph O’Sullivan, Taranaki-King Country MP Barbara Kuriger and mayor Mike Pettit at his store on Wednesday. Photo: Chris Gardner
Downer’s Willy Chester, left, shows Waipā mayor Mike Pettit, chief executive Steph O’Sullivan and Taranaki-King Country MP Barbara Kuriger the Maungauika Road bridge taken out by the St Valentine Day’s Storm. Photo: Chris Gardner
