It doesn’t seem that long ago that our Bay business community were hanging on the mantra: “just survive to 25.” The hope was simple – get through the pain of 2024 and things would finally turn a corner.
Todd Muller
Well, here we are a year on, and if we have turned that corner, it feels more like a long, gentle arc than a sharp shift in fortune. It’s still tough out there. Even softening interest rates and record primary-industry returns haven’t noticeably lifted spirits.
So why are we so glum? Are things really that bad? Or has our collective patience simply worn thin?
Last month my wife and I hosted a friend from Wales on his first trip to New Zealand. To my surprise, I caught myself down-selling the country — a trait I’ve noticed creeping into conversations everywhere. It feels like an impatience with almost everything: people, politics, institutions. Some analysts argue that the rise of populism overseas hasn’t driven this discontent but expressed it. Maybe. But what’s clear is that our social tolerance for complexity is thinner than it used to be. Add the constant online toxicity and background noise of global uncertainty, and it’s no surprise people feel flat.
But here’s the paradox: while sentiment is low, the Western Bay economy is quietly outperforming most of the country.
The mood is down – the numbers are not. The latest local data tells a striking story:
- Mean earnings in the Western Bay grew 5.8%, exactly in line with national growth.
- Māori earnings rose 5.0%, again closely tracking national trends.
- Filled jobs grew 2.4%, outpacing the national rate of 2.2%.
- Highly-skilled jobs grew 2.8%, stronger than New Zealand overall.
- Business unit growth sits at 1.6%, well above the national 0.9% — meaning more local firms are opening and expanding.
- GDP grew 1.9%, beating the national figure of 1.4%.
- Population growth of 2.0% is also ahead of the country at 1.8%.
- And perhaps most telling: unemployment in the Western Bay is 4.0%, significantly below the national rate of 5.2%.
These are not the characteristics of a struggling region. They’re the building blocks of sustainable performance.
As we close in on Christmas — the closest thing to a national reset — business leaders have an opportunity to recalibrate the conversation. Yes, conditions remain challenging. No one doubts that. But the Western Bay is operating from a position of strength, not fragility.
Confidence doesn’t return because we say things are good. It returns when we align our decisions with the data — not the gloom.
And the data tells a clear story. This region is performing. Quietly, steadily, and better than most.
Let’s have a great Christmas and New Year and return with a ’time to thrive’ mindset.
A new covered viewing platform is on its way to Minden Lookout, replacing the old structure that was removed last year for safety reasons. Perched 286 metres above sea level near the corner of Minden and Junction roads, the lookout is one of the Bay’s most popular sightseeing spots. From here, visitors can take in sweeping views of Tauranga, Mount Maunganui, Matakana Island, and the coastline beyond.
