The Bay of Plenty housing market is brimming with listings and bargains, but whether sellers sink or swim will depend on confidence. As Jon Rawlinson found, buyers are circling waiting for the right wave to ride.
Waterfront property, Katikati. Photo: Realestate.co.nz
An oversupply of homes and a cautious economy have left Bay of Plenty buyers spoilt for choice, yet falling interest rates could tempt many to dive back in.
Vanessa Williams of Realestate.co.nz says borrowing is now far cheaper than a year ago, a shift that may stir fresh demand.
“Interest rates were a heck of a lot higher. You could assume that, because it’s now cheaper to borrow, there will be more demand,” she says.
“But we need to move through existing stock. At the moment, people are getting some really good deals, but they’re also not moving particularly fast – they don’t have to because of an oversupply of stock.”
Bay of Plenty is not usually the first place people think of for baches – Coromandel tends to hold that crown.
Vanessa Williams
But Williams says holiday homeowners in the Bay, facing economic gloom, could add to supply by selling.
“I’m from the Bay of Plenty, so I know the area well and when I think of the local market, baches aren’t really where my mind goes,” Williams says.
“It’s just as expensive to buy in the Mount as it is in the Coromandel, and Waihi Beach has also become so expensive. But there are probably more options elsewhere. It depends on lifestyle versus investment and what people want to get out of their property.”
From humble Kiwi baches through to palatial seaside estates, waterfront properties can command higher rentals over summer. However, this too can be checked when economic confidence is lacking.
“If you have a bach and rent it out, you might find fewer people are going on holiday. Everything trickles down – those who usually go overseas may holiday in New Zealand, but more may just stay home,” Williams says.
“Some people who would love to go on holiday this year just won’t be able to.”
Regardless of whether buyers are seeking a summer escape or year‑round living, the Bay reflects the same uncertainties as the national market.
“There’s a remarkable amount of pre-approvals going out but not a corresponding level of sales. That tells me that people inherently want to move or look at a second property, including a bach, but they might lack confidence.”
Confidence is the key to a better balance between supply and demand.
“There’s been nervousness in the economy, but as people become more confident, they will make more decisions. When the economy shifts, and unemployment drops, it will start to stimulate the house market,” Williams says.
“We’re almost at the bottom – after three years of flatness, there would have to be something pretty significant for it to drop further.”
For now, the Bay’s property market feels like a summer beach with plenty of towels laid out but fewer swimmers diving in. Buyers are circling, waiting for the right moment to plunge – and when confidence returns, the rush into the water could be swift and decisive.
Waterfront property, Ōpōtiki. Photo: Realestate.co.nz
